2025, Issue No. 20
Quote Of The Day
The best way to predict the future is to create.
— Abraham Lincoln
Letter To The Investor
Dear Investor,
We’re nearing the end of Q3. September always feels like the natural checkpoint — time to pull up the rearview mirror, measure what’s ahead, and set course for a strong Q4. In that spirit, here’s what I’m seeing, what matters, and what I’d be watching if I were you.
🔍 What’s Going On: Current Headlines
- The Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points. Its first cut since December 2024. The new target range is 4.00%–4.25%.
- The Fed signaled there may be two more rate cuts before the end of the year.
- There’s tension between the Trump administration and the Fed’s leadership. Most notably, the administration has sought to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook; courts have so far blocked that effort. This move has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed.
In short: Rates are coming down, but not without caveats. Inflation is still stubborn in some areas, job gains are softening, political pressure is rising. All of this makes the path forward less certain.
🔧 Q3 Performance Check: Key Metrics to Review
Before you fully jump into Q4, here are the things I think are worth measuring / re-evaluating in your portfolios & strategy:
Think of this grid as your quarterly dashboard. When you find areas of uncertainty, mark them clearly and turn them into concrete next steps. Each number you measure should lead to action, and each action brings you closer to finishing the year strong.
💡 Forward into Q4: Positioning & Strategy
Here are some ideas / moves that could help you finish the year strong:
- If you can, lock in lower interest rates now (or refinance existing debt) in anticipation of tougher credit / inflation or political risk.
- Revisit your underwriting assumptions. If inflation, vacancy, or cap rate expectations changed over the summer, update them now. Better to be conservative in estimates than surprised later.
- In deals already in flight, be sure to have contingency clauses (for financing, cost overruns, supply delays). Market conditions are shifting.
- Explore tax-advantaged moves: depreciation acceleration, cost segregation, or taking losses where possible. Consult your tax advisor now so you have time to act.
- Monitor political risk factors. Moves against the Fed’s independence could shake markets (rates, bonds, financing terms). Being aware lets you hedge or adjust.
🔎 Why “Feds Rates Trump Administration” is More Than a Headline
This phrase has been popping up lately, and rightly so. What the headlines don’t always make clear:
- The Fed, though under pressure, is asserting its role through data-driven policy (inflation, labor market metrics, etc.). Their rate decisions aren’t being made in a vacuum of politics; they still need to maintain credibility.
- However, attempts by the administration to influence or control parts of the Fed (like trying to remove a governor) add uncertainty. That uncertainty tends to increase risk premiums. Lenders, investors, and markets don’t like surprises.
- For you, this means financing cost forecasts should include a margin for political / regulatory risk. Also, you’ll want to pay careful attention to what the Fed says in its upcoming meetings and what signals come from the administration. Sometimes the rhetoric matters almost as much as the policy.
🎯 Your Q3 Reset Action Items
Let me leave you with a concrete list, actions you can take this week or next to close Q3 well and set up for Q4:
- Pull together your Q1–Q3 P&L vs your original projections. Note gaps and the reasons.
- Schedule a meeting with us about refinancing or locking rates. Even small rate improvements can help over a large loan.
- Check your supply & cost contracts (maintenance, repairs, materials). Are there inflation-clause risks or renegotiation opportunities?
- Meet with your CPA or tax advisor to estimate year-end obligations and opportunities.
- Review any active transactions. Are they still aligned with your risk tolerance given political, rate, and inflation shifts?
Looking back, Q3 has been a testing stretch. Forward, there are opportunities hiding in discomfort. We all measure, we all reset. Let’s make the rest of 2025 count.
Always here if you want to talk through exact numbers or scenarios.
To your progress,
Alanna Avalone
Personal Note
Yesterday was my grandpa Bob’s birthday. He’s a hardcore stock market guy and honestly the reason I first got excited about investing. Watching him over the years inspired me to build my own portfolio. Now I’m active on both the Nasdaq and the B3 in Brazil, following in his footsteps in my own way.
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